🏠︎ Back to NARTC

Part of the Boardroom Insights Series: North American Refining 2026/27, developed in collaboration with the NARTC Advisory Board, this article explores how geopolitical instability, market volatility and shifting trade dynamics are reshaping refining strategy across North America.

Drawing on perspectives from senior leaders across the downstream sector, the discussion highlights why flexibility, resilience and commercial agility are becoming critical competitive advantages.

For North American refiners, volatility is no longer the exception, it is the operating environment.

As geopolitical tensions, policy shifts and fluctuating trade dynamics continue to reshape global energy markets, leaders across the NARTC Advisory Board discussed how the industry is adapting to a future defined by ongoing uncertainty.

“Uncertainty is no longer a temporary disruption but seems to be a defining feature of the operating environment.”

Between conflict in the Middle East, U.S. policy whiplash, and fluctuating crude trade flows, refiners described a landscape where short‑term visibility is limited and long‑term decision‑making is increasingly complex.

A recurring comparison was made with COVID‑19 – while the pandemic triggered a temporary shift toward regionalisation, today’s environment reflects a return to global interdependence but with greater fragility.

The Board noted that future disruptions may not be isolated events, but part of a recurring pattern driven by geopolitical tensions. As a result, refiners must plan for continuous instability rather than a return to “normal.”

“Future disruptions may not be isolated events, but part of a recurring pattern driven by geopolitical tensions.”

This requires greater agility in crude sourcing, product slates and commercial strategy, alongside a deeper understanding of how regional operations sit within a global system.

But how do you plan for the unexpected when you don’t know what the unexpected is?

The ability to process a wider range of crude types is becoming a strategic advantage, yet reconfiguring assets to do so is capital intensive and time consuming and so, there is a disconnect between short‑term market signals and long‑term investment cycles which challenges planning.

Therefore, the Board are looking for technologies and solutions to support North America’s refineries process a range of feedstocks.

In addition, the growing integration between refining and trading functions is reshaping market dynamics.

As traders play a larger role in decision‑making, refiners are being forced to think more commercially, balancing operational performance with market positioning.

The Board expressed an interest in bringing more trading perspectives into future discussions, recognising that competitive advantage will increasingly depend on how well these functions align.

Join senior downstream executives, refiners and technology leaders at the North American Refining Technology Conference (NARTC) to explore the operational, commercial and digital priorities shaping the industry’s future.